Climate change is no longer just a potential danger in the distant future, but has become a reality that is felt every day around the world. Global warming has led to more frequent and intense heat waves, which is reflected in all parts of the planet, including Serbia. According to reports from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 was among the hottest years on record, with average temperatures approaching record levels. Heat waves that have hit Europe, Asia and North America have resulted in thousands of deaths, while wildfires fueled by high temperatures have ravaged vast areas.
At the global level, the effects of climate change are becoming more and more apparent through the melting of ice in the Antarctic and the Arctic. Satellite data shows that the ice sheet is shrinking at an alarming rate, which is not only contributing to sea level rise, but also changing global climate patterns, which can lead to more extreme weather events. These changes have far-reaching consequences, not only for coastal areas at risk of flooding, but also for global agriculture, ecosystems and biodiversity. Serbia, as part of the global community, is not immune to these impacts, and recent events clearly show that climate change is already present and requires urgent action at the national level.
Climate changes are becoming more and more obvious in Serbia, and the year 2024 brought particularly alarming events that clearly indicate changes in our environment. This year was marked by extreme weather events, from frequent fires to severe droughts that affected different parts of our country, especially during the summer.
High temperatures and lack of precipitation contributed to the occurrence of catastrophic fires, especially in mountainous regions. Droughts have caused large losses in agriculture, a decrease in the level of river flows and water shortages in many parts of the country, including problems with water supply in some cities. In certain cities, water shortages are already a regular occurrence during the summer.
These extreme climate events not only threatened ecosystems and the lives of local people, but also caused serious economic losses. According to the Revised Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Serbia, Serbia suffered damage of at least 1.8 billion euros in just five years (2015-2020) due to the effects of climate change.
Since 2000, extreme weather conditions have caused damage estimated at over €1.8 billion, with droughts and high temperatures responsible for over 70% of those losses. These droughts have serious consequences for agriculture, reducing the yields of key crops such as maize, which directly affects the economic stability of the country. Despite significant losses, Serbia still does not have an adequate national strategy to combat the consequences of droughts, which further increases the country’s vulnerability to climate change.
As we face these new realities, it is important to recognize the need for adaptation and a more resilient approach in all sectors, from agriculture to water management. Despite the steps taken, we have a long way to go in order to adequately prepare for the challenges ahead.
Adaptation program to changed climate conditions for the period 2023-2030
The Ministry of Environmental Protection adopted the Program of adaptation to changed climatic conditions for the period 2023-2030. year. According to the Program, the analysis of current and future climate changes on the territory of Serbia brings several key conclusions:
- Air temperature is increasing: In the period 2001-2020, the average temperature in Serbia increased by 1.2°C compared to the reference period 1961-1990. The average temperature is projected to continue to rise, with projections for the near future (2021-2040) predicting an additional increase of 1.3°C to 2.3°C. By the end of the century (2081-2100), the temperature is expected to rise from 3.1°C to as much as 5.8°C depending on the emission scenario.
- Precipitation during the summer will decrease: In the period 2001-2020, a slight increase in the annual amount of precipitation was recorded in Serbia, but with large seasonal variations. In the near future (2021-2040), precipitation will decrease in the summer period, while winter precipitation will increase slightly. Bigger changes are expected by the end of the century, with summer rainfall decreasing by up to 30% in some parts of the country, which will further worsen conditions for agriculture.
- Heatwaves are getting longer: The period 2001-2020 saw more heatwaves than ever before, with an average increase of 5-10 days per year with temperatures above 35°C. It is expected that this trend will continue, and that in the period 2081-2100 the duration of heat waves will be extended to more than 30 days per year.
- Droughts pose a major threat: Extreme droughts have already become more frequent, and the situation is expected to worsen further in the future. In the period 2021-2040, every year has the potential to be dry, while by the end of the century (2081-2100) is that dry periods will become the norm, with significant reductions in water availability.
- Floods will become more intense: The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall will increase, especially in the winter months, which will contribute to more frequent floods. The risk of flooding is expected to be particularly high in the basins of large rivers such as the Sava and the Danube.
The program also confirms that the effects of climate change will adversely affect people’s health and safety. It is stated that the indirect impact occurs through the reduced availability of water and water of satisfactory quality due to the impact of climate change, an increase in the frequency and duration of conditions that lead to the deterioration of air quality in conditions where there are sources of pollution, reduced availability and quality of food, more frequent and widespread occurrences of vector-borne diseases and rodent-borne diseases, etc. Increases in injuries, deaths, infections and more are also linked to the impact of climate change. The long-term impact of climatic hazards on the health and safety of people is reflected in the deterioration of living conditions due to damage to property and the deterioration of the environment and natural resources, when there is no possibility of quick repair, i.e. damage repair.
What is the solution?
The Government of Serbia, if we take the Program and the accompanying Action Plan as a basis, plans to respond to these challenges through the implementation of adaptive strategies that include strengthening the resilience of infrastructure, improving water resource management systems, and developing sustainable agricultural practices. Also, a lot of attention is paid to the improvement of climate change monitoring and timely response to climate risks, which will be key to preserving economic stability and protecting citizens’ lives and property.
The planned measures relate to the adaptation of the health system, agriculture and forestry, the “greening” of urban areas in order to reduce the effect of heat islands, the adoption of public policy acts, measures to strengthen the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute (RHMZ) through the improvement of the entire infrastructure of early announcements and warnings (computer systems, improvement of observation systems, creation of special databases), which is an unavoidable point on the way to reducing future losses and damage. A special measure is the improvement of information, which applies both to the RHMZ and to the media and the general public: The program singles out as necessary the new Internet presentation of the Institute, as well as new portals, trainings and other formats that should help the dissemination of timely information.
In addition to the planned measures, it is also important to take into account the role of companies (economy) that contribute to climate change in different ways, but at the same time are key to the process of adapting to it. For example, the tourism sector, which has a significant impact on the environment, needs to carefully manage resources such as water during the summer months. Limited use of water and other sustainability measures in tourism can not only reduce negative effects on the climate, but also contribute to successful adaptation to changes that are already underway.
Along with the accelerated implementation of existing measures, it is necessary to establish clearer and more precise projects of adaptation to changed climatic conditions. Construction in urban areas must be directed towards greening and increasing the energy efficiency of buildings, which would reduce the effect of heat islands and energy consumption. Also, it is necessary to encourage farmers to apply irrigation technologies that minimize water losses, as well as to use more resistant plant varieties. Additionally, the introduction of stricter water protection laws and the reduction of river pollution could preserve drinking water reserves in the long term and reduce the risk of droughts. The use of water must be carefully reviewed, with a special emphasis on conservation and rational use, because future water shortages are increasingly certain. These changes are crucial for long-term risk reduction and ensuring sustainable development in a changing climate.
The summer that brought extreme temperatures and drought shows that the situation is urgent and that it requires more energetic action by the state in implementing the planned measures. These climate disasters are already seriously threatening agriculture, citizens’ health, and infrastructure, and it is necessary that all planned steps be implemented quickly and decisively. The Government of Serbia must increase its efforts in the implementation of adaptive strategies, because every day of delay increases the risk of further losses and damage. Faster and more efficient implementation of these measures is necessary for the protection of life, property and economic stability of the country in increasingly unpredictable climatic conditions.